Magne Aldrin's home page

Magne Aldrin's home page


Magne Aldrin
Norwegian Computing Center,
Gaustadalléen 23,
P.O. Box 114 Blindern,
N-0314 Oslo,
Tel: (+47) 22 85 25 00
Dir: (+47) 22 85 26 58
Fax: (+47) 22 69 76 60


Dr.Scient (Ph.D. equiv.) in statistics/regression analysis at Statistics division, Department of mathematics, University of Oslo, 1996.
Graduate Civil Engineer (M.Sc. equiv.) in Operational Research/Statistics at University of Trondheim, Norwegian Institute of Technology, 1984.

Present position

Chief research scientist/statistician in the department for Statistical Analysis, Pattern Recognition and Image Analysis (SAMBA) at the Norwegian Computing Center (NR).


1984-1985: The Norwegian Pulp and Paper Research Institute (PFI).
1985-present: The Norwegian Computing Center, formerly at the Statistical Data Analysis group (STAT), now at SAMBA.
2010-2014: Adjunct professor at the Statistics division, Department of mathematics, University of Oslo.

Key Qualifications:

Statistical methodology:
General statistics
Time series analysis
Multivariate statistics
Stochastic simulation
Data mining
Bayesian statistics
Combining computer models and stochastic models
Complex modelling
Regression, including
shrinkage regression (PLS, ridge, Lasso, reduced rank etc.)
nonlinear regression (GAM, neural networks, projection pursuit, MARS, AVAS etc.)
Applications within forecasting and time series:
Teletraffic volume
Tax income
Water flow
Electricity demand
Electricity price
Metal price
Oil demand
Grain price
Newspaper sales
Bacterial resistance to antibiotics
Predicting biomass in fish farming
Predicting blood donor arrival
Other applications:
Paper production
Newspaper printing
Traffic counting
Whale catching management
Estimating catch-at-age of cod
Empirical models for air pollution, traffic and meteorology
Water pollution
Health effects of air pollution
Clinical trials
Modeling of a smelting furnace
Train networks
Predicting soccer World Cup
Surveys by web
Credit scoring
Software engineering
Estimation of copyright volume
Spread of infectious diseases in fish farming
Climate change

Journal papers and book chapters

Steinbakk, G.H., Aarsnes, L.H., Aldrin, M., Astrup, O.C. Haug, O., Storhaug, G., Vanem, E. (2019). Statistical Approximation to Synthetic Midship Hull Girder Stress Response. Journal of Ship Research, available online 26 August 2019. doi:10.5957/JOSR.02190008.

Aldrin, M., Jansen, P.A. and Stryhn, H. (2018). A partly stage-structured model for the abundance of salmon lice in salmonid farms. Epidemics, Vol. 26, p. 9-22. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2018.08.001.

Aldrin, M., Aanes, S. and Subbey, S. (2018). Comments on incongruous formulations in the SAM (state-space assessment model) model and consequences for fish stock assessment. Fisheries research, Vol. 210, p. 224-227. doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2018.08.001.

Skeie, R.B, Berntsen, T., Aldrin, M., Holden, M., and Myhre, G. (2018). Climate sensitivity estimates - sensitivity to radiative forcing time series and observational data. Earth System Dynamics, vol. 9, p. 879-894. doi:10.5194/esd-9-879-2018.

Aldrin, M., Huseby, R.B., Stien, A., Grøntvedt, R.N., Viljugrein, H., Jansen, P.A. (2017). A stage-structured Bayesian hierarchical model for salmon lice populations at individual salmon farms - Estimated from multiple farm data sets. Ecological Modelling, Vol. 359, p. 333-348. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.05.019.

Pettersen J.M., Brynildsrud O.B., Huseby R.B., Rich K.M., Aunsmo A., Bang Jensen B. and Aldrin M. (2016). The epidemiological and economic effects from systematic depopulation of Norwegian marine salmon farms infected with pancreas disease virus. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Vol. 132, p. 113-124, doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2016.09.001.

Kristoffersen, L., Strand, D.H., Liane, V., Vindenes, V., Aldrin, M., and Tvete, I.F. (2016). Determination of safety margins for whole blood concentrations of alcohol and nineteen drugs in driving under the influence cases. Forensic Science International, Vol. 259, p. 119-116, doi:10.1016/j.forsciint.2015.12.009.

Aldrin, M. (2015). Fair compensation for gate and wind conditions in ski jumping estimated from competition data using a mixed model. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (JQAS), Vol. 11, p. 231-245, doi:10.1515/jqas-2015-0022.

Aldrin, M., Huseby, R. B., Jansen, P.A. (2015). Space-time modelling of the spread of pancreas disease (PD) within and between Norwegian marine salmonid farms. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Vol. 121, p. 132-141, doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2015.06.005.

Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Terje Berntsen, Magne Aldrin, Marit Holden, Gunnar Myhre (2014). A lower and more constrained estimate of climate sensitivity using updated observations and detailed radiative forcing time series. Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 5, p. 139-175, doi:10.5194/esd-5-139-2014.

Sveberg, G., Refsdal, A.O., Erhard, H., Kommisrud, E., Aldrin, M., Tvete, I.F., Buckley, F. Waldmann, A., Ropstad, E. (2013). Sexually active groups in cattle-A novel estrus sign. Journal of Dairy Science Vol. 96, Issue 7, Pages 4375-4386, doi:10.3168/jds.2012-6407.

Aldrin, M., Storvik, B., Kristoffersen, A.B., Jansen, P.A (2013). Space-time modelling of the spread of salmon lice between and within Norwegian marine salmon farms. PLoS ONE 8(5): e64039, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0064039.

Aldrin, M., Raastad, R., Tvete, I.F., Berild, D., Frigessi, A., Leegaard, T., Monnet, D.L., Walberg, M. and Müller, F. (2013). Antibiotic resistance in hospitals: a ward specific random effect model in a low antibiotic consumption environment. Statistics in Medicine. Vol. 32, p. 1407-1418, doi:10.1002/sim.5636.

Hirst,D., Storvik, G., Rognebakke, H., Aldrin, M., Aanes, S. and Vølstad, J.H. (2012). A modeling approach to the estimation of catch-at-age of commercial fish species. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 69, p. 2064-2076, doi:10.1139/cjfas-2012-0075.

Ingunn F Tvete, Inge C Olsen, Morten W Fagerland, Nils Meland, Magne Aldrin, Knut T Smerud and Lars Holden (2012). An approach to combining cross-over trials with and without run-in periods using individual patient data. Clinical Trials, Vol. 9, p. 164-175.

Aldrin, M., Holden, M., Guttorp, P., Skeie, R.B., Myhre, G. and Berntsen, T.K. (2012). Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity based on a simple climate model fitted to observations of hemispheric temperatures an global ocean heat content. Environmetrics, Vol. 23, p. 253-271, doi:10.1002/env.2140.

Jansen, P., Kristoffersen, A., Viljugrein, H., Jimenez, D., Aldrin, M. and Stien, A. (2012). Sea lice as a density dependent constraint to salmonid farming. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 239, p. 2330-2338, doi:10.1098/rspb.2012.0084 . [HENT]

Aldrin, M., Mortensen, B., Storvik, G., Nedreaas, K., Aglen, A. and Aanes, S. (2012). Improving management decisions by predicting fish bycatch within the Barents Sea shrimp fishery. ICES Journal of Marine Science, Vol. 69, p. 64-74, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr172 .

Løland, A., Aldrin, M., Steinbakk, G. H. , Huseby, R. B. and Grøttum, J.A. (2011) Prediction of biomass in Norwegian fish farms. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Vol. 68, Number 8, p. 1420-1434, doi: 10.1139/f2011-078 . [HENT]

Haug, O., Dimakos, X. K., Vårdal, J. F.; Aldrin, M. and Meze-Hausken, E. (2011). Future building water loss projections posed by climate change. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, Vol 2011, p. 1-20.

Sveberg, G., Refsdal, A.O., Erhard, H., Kommisrud, E., Aldrin, M., Tvete, I.F., Buckley, F., Valdmann, A. Ropstad, E. (2011). Behavior of Lactating Holstein Friesian Cows during Spontaneous Cycles of Estrus. Journal of Dairy Science, Vol. 94, p. 1289-1301.

Aldrin, M., Lyngstad, T.M., Kristoffersen, A.B., Storvik, B., Borgan, Ø, Jansen, P.A. (2011). Modelling the spread of infectious salmon anaemia (ISA) among salmon farms based on seaway distances between farms and genetic relationships between ISA virus isolates. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, Vol. 8, p. 1346-1356, doi: 10.1098/rsif.2010.0737 . [HENT]

Aldrin, M., Storvik, B., Frigessi, A., Viljugrein, H. and Jansen, P. A. (2010). A stochastic model for the assessment of the transmission pathways of heart and skeleton muscle inflammation, pancreas disease and infectious salmon anaemia in marine fish farms in Norway. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Vol. 93, p. 51-61, doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2009.09.010 . [HENT]

Witsø, E., Cinek, O., Aldrin, M., Grinde, B., Rasmussen, T., Wetlesen, T. and Rønningen, K. (2010).Predictors of sub-clinical enterovirus infections in infants: a prospective cohort study. International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 39, p. 459-468, doi: 10.1093/ije/dyp333 . [HENT]

Eggesbø M., Stigum H., Longnecker M.P., Polder A., Aldrin M., Basso, O., Thomsen, C., Skaare J.U., Becher , G., Magnus P. (2009). Levels of hexachlorobenzene (HCB) in breast milk in relation to birth weight in a Norwegian cohort. Environmental Research, Vol. 109, p. 559-566, doi:10.1016/j.envres.2009.04.001 . [HENT]

Aldrin, M., Huseby, R.B., and Schweder, T., 2008: A note on tuning the catch limit algorithm for commercial baleen whaling. Journal of Cetacean Research and Management, Vol. 10, p. 191-194. [HENT]

Gjerde, H., Normann, P.T., Pettersen, B.S., Assum, T., Aldrin, M., Johansen, U., Kristoffersen, L., Øiestad, E.L., Christophersen, A.S., and Mørland, J. (2008). Prevalence of alcohol and drugs among Norwegian motor vehicle drivers: a roadside survey. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 40, p. 1765-1772. [HENT]

Aldrin, M., Hobæk Haff, I. (2008). The effect of salting with magnesium chloride on the concentration of particulate matter in a road tunnel. Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 22, p. 1762-1776, [HENT]

Løland, A., Aldrin, M., Ona, E., Hjellvik, V., Holst, J.C. (2007). Estimating and decomposing total uncertainty for survey-based abundance estimates of Norwegian spring-spawning herring. ICES Journal of Marine Science, Vol. 64, p. 1302-1312. [HENT]

Bøvelstad, H.M., Nygård, S., Størvold, H.L, Aldrin, M., Borgan, Ø, Frigessi, A., Lingjærde, O.C. (2007). Predicting survival from microarray data - a comparative study. Bioinformatics, Vol. 23, p. 2080-2087. [HENT]

Scheel, I., Aldrin, M., Frigessi, A. and Jansen, P.A (2007): A stochastic model for infectious salmon anemia (ISA) in Atlantic salmon farming. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, Vol. 4, p. 699-706. [HENT]

Larssen, T., Huseby, R.B, Cosby, B.J., Høst, G., Høgåsen, G. and Aldrin, M. (2006): Forecasting Acidification Effects using a Bayesian Calibration and Uncertainty Propagation Approach. Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 40, p. 7841-7847. [HENT]

Aldrin, M. (2006): Improved predictions penalizing both slope and curvature in additive models. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Vol. 50, p. 267-284. [HENT]

Scheel, I., Aldrin, M., Glad, I.K., Sørum, R., Lyng, H. and Frigessi, A. (2005). The influence of missing value imputation on detection of differentially expressed genes from microarray data. Bioinformatics, Vol. 21, p. 4272-4279. [HENT]

Aldrin, M. and Hobæk Haff, I. (2005): Generalised additive modelling of air pollution, traffic volume and meteorology. Atmospheric Environment, Vol 39, p. 2145-2155. [HENT]

Hirst, D., Storvik, G., Aldrin, M., Aanes, S. and Huseby, R.B. (2005): Estimating catch-at-age by combining data from different sources. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Vol. 62, p. 1377-1385 [HENT]

Bosnes, V.; Aldrin, M. and Heier, H. E. (2005): Predicting blood donor arrival. Transfusion, Vol. 45, p. 162-170.[HENT]

Cekaite, L.; Haug, O.; Myklebost, O.; Aldrin, M.; Østenstad, B.; Holden, M.; Frigessi; A., Hovig, E. and Sioud, M. (2004): Analysis of the humoral immune response to immunoselected phage-displayed peptides by a microarray-based method. Proteomics, Vol. 4, p. 2572-2582. [HENT]

Vokac, M.; Tichy, W.; Sjøberg, D.I.K; Arisholm, E. and Aldrin, M. (2004): A controlled experiment comparing the maintainability of programs designed with and without Design Patterns - a replication in a real programming environment. Empirical Software Engineering, Vol. 9, p. 149-195. [HENT]

Aldrin, M., Holden, M. and Schweder, T. (2003): Comment on Cowling's "Spatial Methods for Line Transect Surveys". Biometrics, Vol. 59, p. 186-188. [HENT]
(This is an electronic version of an article published in Biometrics: complete citation information for the final version of the paper, as published in the print edition of Biometrics, is available on the Blackwell Synergy online delivery service, accessible via the journal's website at or

Aldrin, M. (2002): Reduced-rank regression. In Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, eds. El-Shaarawi, A.H. and Piegorsch, W.W., Chichester: John wiley & Sons, p. 1724-1728. [HENT]

Aldrin, M. (2000): Multivariate prediction using softly shrunk reduced-rank regression. American Statistician, Vol. 54, p. 29-34. [HENT]

Aldrin, M. (1997): Length modified ridge regression. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, Vol. 25, p. 377-398. [HENT]

Aldrin, M. (1996): Moderate projection pursuit regression for multivariate response data. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, Vol. 21, p. 501-531. [HENT]

Aldrin, M.; Bølviken, E.; Schweder, T. (1993): Projection pursuit regression for moderate non-linearities. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, Vol. 16, p. 379-403. [HENT]

Aldrin, M.; Damsleth, E. (1989): Forecasting Non-Seasonal Time Series with Missing Observations. Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 8, p. 97-116.

Aldrin, M.; Damsleth, E.; Sæbø, H.V. (1989): Time series analysis of unequally spaced observations, with application to copper contamination of the river Gaula in central Norway. Environmental Monitoring, Vol. 12, p. 227-243. [HENT]

Other papers

Aldrin, Magne; Schweder,Tore and Holden, Marit (2002): «Spatial distribution of whales based on the Norwegian Minke Whale Survey 1996-2001. Paper SC/54/RMP4 presented to the Scientific Committee of the International Whaling Commission 2002. [HENT]

Aldrin,Magne and Tvete, Ingunn Fride (2002): Measurement error models for the Norwegian Minke Whale Surveys 1996-2001. Paper SC/54/RMP3 presented to the Scientific Committee of the International Whaling Commission 2002. [HENT]

Aldrin, Magne; Holden, Marit and Schweder, Tore (2001): Estimation of a Neyman-Scott process from line transect data by a one-dimensional K-function. NR-note SAMBA/18/01. [HENT]

Aldrin, Magne og Tjøstheim, Ingvar (2000): Web-baserte spørreundersøkelser - Erfaringer fra en undersøkelse om NRKs web-sider ved hjelp av telefon og web. NR-note SAMBA/09/00. [HENT]

Aldrin, Magne og Haug, Ola (2000): Beregning av trafikkvolum ved hjelp av basiskurvemetoden - En innføring. NR-note SAMBA/05/00. [HENT]

Clench-Aas, J.; Aldrin, M.; Bartonova, A.; Follestad, T.; Walker, S-E.; Skjønsberg, O.H.; Giæver, P. and Moseng, J. (2000): The short-term and long-term effects of air pollution on symptoms of reduced health in a panel of school-age children. NILU OR 65/99, Norwegian Institute for Air Resarch.

Tjøstheim, I.; Solheim, I.; Aldrin, M. (1999): Combining information from web based survey and telephone survey. Proceedings of The Ninth Word Marketing Congress, Qawra, Malta, June 1999. [HENT]

Aldrin, M. (1998): Traffic volume estimation from short-period traffic counts. Traffic Engineering + Control, Vol. 39, p. 656-660. [HENT]

Aldrin, M. (1996): Regression with few and noisy data. Thesis for Doctor Scientarium, University of Oslo, Department of mathematics, Statistics division.

Aldrin, M. (1995): A statistical approach to the modelling of daily car traffic. Traffic Engineering + Control, Vol. 36, p. 489-493. [HENT]

Woodall, M. L.; Aldrin, M.; Berli, E. L. (1994): How predictable is newsprint quality. Proceedings of the 48-th Appita Annual General Conference, Melbourne, May 1994.

Complete list of publications.

Magne Aldrin: 2015